Thursday, August 27, 2009

Class 3A Preseason Girls Cross Country Rankings

The 3A Girls rankings were by far the toughest to do. The upper crust is easy, but after number three there is definitely a fall off. Freshmen will have a bigger impact in this class than any other. Four freshmen finished in the top 20 last year. Several teams are only one newcomer away from being in the top five come October.

Team Rankings

1. Riley County – Last year’s score and place: 52 – 2nd
Riley County has been second or first in each of the last five years at state. Belle Plaine had a Cinderella season last year and knocked it off the top after a three year reign, but Belle Plaine has come back down to earth while Riley County just reloads. Its returning score of 53 is 18 points better than the second place team on this list. I also will not be surprised to see Riley County churn out another star freshman. Last season its top three runners at state were all freshmen. There is virtually no way Riley County loses if it returns even just four of its five. Programs like this always have backups to turn to.

2. Southeast of Saline – Last year: 115 – 3rd
Southeast of Saline returns a pack and the big difference between it and the number three team on this list is at the number five spot. Last year Southeast of Saline’s fifth returner finished ahead of both Remington’s four and five. The lack of a front runner makes it very vulnerable though.

3. Remington – Last year: 120 – 4
Morgan Trible finished sixth as a sophomore and is the second fastest returner, so Remington has the frontrunner to compete. Its sixth runner last year finished 75th overall and will need to step up closer to the fourth runner if Remington is to beat Southeast of Saline and get second.

4. Wichita Collegiate – Did not qualify
Yes, you read that right. I am putting Collegiate as a top five team in 3A this year after not fielding a team last season. The reasons for this are threefold. First, 3A is extremely weak this season. Graduation ravaged its ranks and there will be a major fall off after three teams where anyone can win it. Second, the Newlin twins (Maggie and Ellie) showed great improvement in track. Maggie was only 10 seconds behind 28th place finisher from the state cross country meet Camille Christensen at the MCAA league meet. Her sister is capable of running with her. Both have trained this summer and are top 25 capable in a weak field. Both twins did fall off at the state meet. The third factor is Megan Duggins. Duggins fell off the map due to an injury that derailed her entire sophomore campaign in cross country and most of her track season. She was well enough at state track to bust out a 2:24 and give Amanda Callaway from Belle Plaine all she wanted to handle for 600 meters. Remember, as a freshman Duggins beat Callaway at the state track meet when she finished eighth and Callaway was 9th. That second place finish in the 800 proved she still has it. Collegiate will field a team this year and their four and five are decently solid from what I have heard.

5. Kansas City Christian – 187 – 6th
You probably expected to see the defending state champion Belle Plaine Dragons here, but I do not think they will even qualify as a team for the state meet. Taylor Scott, Ivy Wellman and Amelia Hunt all have the ability to lead a team, but Belle Plain likely cannot field a team unless some newcomers step in. Belle Plaine only raced six girls at the regional and state meets last year. Losing two top 10 performers (including the state champion) will likely be too much to overcome. Kansas City Christian has a solid core of returners, but no frontrunners. Its five scored 50 team points last year and will have to step up along with an unknown runner.

Individual Rankings
1. Rebecca Strecker – Ellinwood, Sophomore

She did not run cross country last year, but showed up on the track and took second in the 3200 at the state track meet. Her 11:52 was 40 seconds faster than any other returning runner. I don’t know if she is going to run cross country, but if she does she will be the immediate favorite.

2. Megan Duggins – Collegiate, Junior
I am going out on a limb with my top two runners, but wrap your mind around this. Duggins was the MCAA Cross Country champion by 41 seconds with a time of 16:44 in the 4k. She did it off of virtually no training as she recovered from an injury. Duggins will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

3. Kimberly Smith – Northern Heights, sophomore
Smith stepped up in her first season and went toe-to-toe at the state cross country meet with Norton’s Laura Lee Baird, who is now running at Kansas State. She lost by five seconds, but the experience is there.

4. Karly Ruggle – Riley County, Freshman
Ruggle did not have a great state track meet, but Riley County will put at least one runner in the top five and Ruggle is the top returner. Teammates Emily Collins or Kelly Thomson (also only sophomores) could easily be in this spot as well.

5. A newcomer you have not heard much about – School: ??
Class 3A is so wide open this year that somebody is going to burst onto the XC scene and make a top five in her first season. I cannot venture a guess as to who yet, but it will be somebody. Have any of you heard what freshman/new girls will make some noise in 3A? Let me know because I know some of you have an idea!

You can contact me by emailing to cparker@kwch.com or leaving a comment. Come back tomorrow for more rankings.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Everybody has there eye on some newcomers..but I think we should leave that a Suprise for everybody! Its going to be intense and be shocking to people! Where did these girls come from? Just wait til Thursday races start!

running said...

Ever thought it could be someone who busted their butt this summer but didn't make an appearance at last years state cross country meet? So its their second season not first plus not a new kid.

Chris Parker said...

Running - That is why I love cross country. Every year there seems to be a runner that jumps from non-qualifier to all-state or 80th to top 10. In other sports like football it is a lot more uncommon for a kid to just show up and surprise everyone. You never can be sure what to expect until the runners step to the line and that's what makes XC great! I am excited to see what surprises this season has to bring.

Anonymous said...

Clearly you can see that preseason ranking don't mean anything.