5A State XC Preview

All the races, both team and individual, will come down to the wire on Saturday.

For other state meet previews:
Click here for the 6A State Preview

Top 5 Individual Girls:
1. Kaelyn Balch – Bishop Carroll
The race for first is going to be two girls and only two girls. Balch beat Mackenzie Maki of Kapaun a lot early, but Maki has won recently. I am giving the edge to Balch for two reasons. First is the fact that she has thrown down a 14:01 this year. Second is that she has already gone sub-15 at Rim Rock. Last season Maki won the state meet with a 15:12. Balch went 14:56 at the Rim Rock Invitational earlier this season. Balch also is probably a little fresher since she skipped the City League meet as a precaution for a foot injury.

2. Mackenzie Maki – Kapaun
Maki can win it, there is no doubt. She has learned how to race in her junior season and is riding a hot streak into the state meet that started all the way back at the OSU Jam. The race will be phenomenal no doubt and both her and Balch will go sub-14:45.

3. Ashley Washburn – St. Thomas Aquinas
The runner-up last year will likely have to settle for third place this season. She has been running solid of late after a rocky start to the season. She has the big meet experience and comes from a very proud program and strong team. Washburn is the EKL champion and was a regional champion. She just is not on the same level as the two girls above are right now.

4. Clarissa Johnson – Gardner-Edgerton
This girl is solid. She won a relatively weak regional with a solid time (15:23) out at Topeka West. She was eighth last season, but Johnson is much improved this year. At the JK Gold Classic back at the start of the year she ran 16:01, which was a 30-second improvement from her junior season. Then on a tough KC Turner course she ran 17:43, which was a 38-second improvement. Then at the Topeka West Regional on the same course this year she ran 15:23, which was a 51-second improvement over her junior season on the same course. She is ready to drop a 15:25 on Saturday.

5. Rubi Torres – Great Bend
Torres was beat by three Aquinas runners and Jenna Stanbrough of Emporia early this year at Emporia, but I still like her chances to sneak into the top five. She is a runner who has just improved as the season has gone on. At the Hays Inivitational she ran 15:49. One month later on a the same course she cut 19 seconds and ran 15:30 for the WAC championship. Torres finished fifth last season and I like her chances to repeat that performance.

Top 3 Teams
1. Bishop Carroll
This race is going to be just as fun to watch as the individual race. It is clearly a two-team race between the Golden Eagles and Aquinas. At Rim Rock earlier this season Carroll ran a 16:40 average while Aquinas was 16:46. The teams are virtually mirror images of each other with strong front runners and a great pack. The emergence of Anasastasyia Menestrina will be a difference maker. She beat Torres at the regional meet and has been running with a lot of confidence since the GWAL meet where she was third.

2. St. Thomas Aquinas
Aquinas threw down a perfect score at its regional and for good measure took the top seven spots. All seven girls beat the Page Miller of Pittsburg who was fourth at Valley Center last season. This race comes down to a few points. If any one of the top five for either team has a bad race then that could be what tips the scales.

3. Newton
This was between three teams for me. Hutchinson, Newton and Great Bend are all strong contenders, but Newton is the clear favorite after winning the Emporia regional fairly easily with three runners in the top six. The deciding factor for me was the Lake Afton course. At the regional meet Hutchinson averaged 16:45 per girl for second place and Great Bend was third with a 16:41 average. One week earlier at its league meet at Afton, the Railers averaged 16:21 per girl which clearly out paces the other two teams.

Top 5 Individual Boys

1. Adam Porter – McPherson
There is not much more to say about this kid. He knows how to win. The only loss he had this season came to Roy Wedge of Lawrence. Porter has not lost to another 5A runner in a very long time and has demonstrated his ability again and again to dig deep and out kick other runners. Twice he has beaten Hutchinson’s Cameron Sprague by only a second. Porter proved at last spring’s state meet that he possesses a rare blend of strength and speed as he won the 800-, 1600- and 3200-meter runs.

2. Josh Munsch – Hays
Yes, Hutchinson’s Cameron Sprague did beat him at the Lake Afton regional. I don’t think that Munsch showed all his cards though. The Hays harrier has shown a lot better this year and has even beaten Sprague twice this season. He did it once head-to-head at the Great Bend invitational in the early season and then again at Rim Rock. The two ran in different races, but Munsch ran 16:25 compared to Sprague’s 16:53 in a different race. Munsch might have learned his lesson after last season’s regional meet where he and Porter dueled and gave everything they had at the regional meet and then had slightly disappointing state performances.

3. Cameron Sprague – Hutchinson
Don’t get me wrong, Sprague can win this for sure. What he has to do is neutralize Porter's and Munsch’s kicks if he has a shot. Sprague is a distance stud, but I don’t know if he can offer the same top end speed as Porter and Munsch. If Sprague forces the issue early then I think he can win this if he does not allow it to turn into a kickers race. If he allows Porter and Munsch to sit on him then it will probably be a third place finish for him.

4. David Thor – Bishop Carroll
Carroll always seems to peak right and Thor is right on pace to do just that. He was fourth at his regional behind Sprague, Munsch and Seth Tophoj of Hays. Carroll is smart though and have been very cautious with its top guys so as to peak at the right time. Thor is ready to do just that.

5. Javier Segura – Topeka West
He is another example of a strong kicker. He will be battling with Carroll’s Cliff Kissling and Bonner Springs’ Brooks Ballou for this spot. Segura has run in big races this season and was a regional champion. Segura has been consistently between 16:40 and 17:00 all season and is due for a break out

Top 3 Teams
1. Bishop Carroll
It is the same situation as the girls race. Carroll has the better top end talent with Thor and Kissling and that strength pulls them in a big field. The only potential downfall to this team is the youth. Four of the top seven runners are freshmen getting their first taste of state.

2. St. Thomas Aquinas
Aquinas is a more veteran team with five of its top six from the regional meet being upperclassmen. I am not sure what happened to its seventh runner at the regional meet, but if Aquinas is only able to go six deep at state then that will hinder them. Overall this race is going to be great to watch.

3. McPherson
This spot was either Hutchinson or McPherson. Both teams have been running well. Both teams have each won head-to-head battles. They are very similar from one to five as well. Porter and Sprague virtually cancel each other out in this race and it goes down to the two through five runners. McPherson has a better two through four in my opinion with Morgan Peterson, Caleb Porter and Nikolous Rempe. The five runner will be the difference maker. If the gap between four and five does not get smaller than this race gets a little dicey for McPherson. Problems like a large gap time get exposed in a big meet like state.

As always leave a comment or contact me at cparker@kwch.com with your thoughts and opinions on the state XC meets.