6A State XC Preview/Predictions

Class 6A XC State Meet Preview

It is time again for my third annual complete state meet preview/predictions. As always I will pick who I think will be the top three teams and the top five individuals. I will kick it off with 6A and check back later for the other classes.Top Five Girls Individuals

1. Avery Clifton – Washburn Rural
Nobody is close to this girl in 6A, or the state. She can drop 14:30 like it is nothing. Washburn Rural does not dodge anyone and Clifton has beat all comers this season including Kaelyn Balch of Carroll and the entire field at Rim Rock. She not only wins state, but wins by at least 20 seconds.

2. Danielle Walker – Maize
Walker has a rare blend of speed and endurance not seen very often. She was third last season at the state meet. The Maize harrier is a solid and consistent runner. She does not have the ability of Clifton to bust a sub-14, but I like her ability to sit and kick. I think she edges the next runner on this list by just a hair. Her 15:28 at the Dodge City Regional is impressive considering what I have heard about that course (everyone says it is an absolute bear).

3.Emily Hornbeck – Derby
Hornbeck really busted out at the El Dorado Invitational with a time of 14:42 and a third place finish. She then went head-to-head with Walker at their league meet and was outkicked, but still turned in a sub-15 performance. She was beat by her teammate Green at the regional meet, but once again, you cannot put too much stock in regional times.

4. Lisa Imgrund – Shawnee Mission Northwest
She has not thrown down any amazing times from what I have seen, but she won the Sunflower League championship and the regional championship. Imgrund also finished fourth last season.

5. Amber Green – Derby
She will work well with her teammate through most of the race, but Hornbeck just has another gear right now.

Top Three Teams

1. Olathe East
At the Topeka Seaman Invitational Olathe East had no trouble with Topeka Washburn Rural and won easily. Olathe East pulled out a victory at the Sunflower League Championships and added a regional championship on Saturday. The big weakness of this team is the fifth runner that is a little separated from the front four. A flaw like that can be exposed in a large field.

2. Topeka Washburn Rural
The Junior Blues handled Derby at the regional meet by enough to convince me that is just cannot be written off as a regional thing. Derby won the matchup at the Rim Rock Classic, but Washburn Rural had the better average time. The strength of the Junior Blues, besides the obvious asset of the champ, is its pack from two through six. At the Centennial League meet the gap time between number two and six was only 10 seconds. That is a ridiculously solid pack.

3. Derby
Yes, Goddard beat Derby at the league meet, but Derby still had a slightly better overall time. In a big field the low numbers that Hornbeck and Green are throwing down will offset the Goddard pack. As I have said many times, I respect what Derby pulls off at the end of the season. The Panthers were third behind Washburn Rural and Manhattan at the regional meet, but Hornbeck also did not run to her potential.

Top Five Boys Individuals:

1. Roy Wedge – Lawrence
Wedge has only lost twice this year and once was to an out of state runner at the Rim Rock Classic. He went 15:58 that weekend at Rim Rock. At league he ran 15:41 to be the champion of the toughest league in the state. He was the regional champion and there is no doubt that he gets his individual title on his home course. Last season he finished second to Campus’ Brayden Barrientez.

2. Aaron Pope – Topeka Washburn Rural
Pope impressed me a lot back at the Southeast Invitational in mid-September. He ran up against tough competition and had no problem. He beat a very good Cameron Sprague of Hutchinson (who has been within a second of Adam Porter of McPherson twice). He is a dedicated runner and a smart runner. He took second to Neil Metler of Derby at the regional meet, but in my opinion he was saving it for state. His team is one of the top in the state so there was no reason to go all out. He also had a weak showing at league, but is clearly getting back into the swing of things.

3. Logan Sloan – Lawrence Free State
I tried to talk myself out of putting Sloan here, but I just like what the kid has done too much. He started the season off with a big win over Roy Wedge. He is a dark horse in the mold of Barrientez from last year. Sloan has been near the top every time he races a big race, but just hasn’t quite won the big championship. His big race experience gives him an edge. Sloan has gone 16:20 and 16:08 the two times he raced at Rim Rock. Running at home in his senior season is another plus. He finished eighth at the Free State Regional meet, but I like him to bounce back.

4. Andrew Stevens – Shawnee Mission South
Stevens, eighth at state last year as a junior, was a regional champion this year with a time of 16:10. He was second in the vaunted Sunflower League and was not pushed too hard in his regional meet.

5. Neil Metler – Derby
Derby runners have a habit of peaking at the right time. Jake Wike did it through the latter stages of his high school career. The Derby girls did it last year as they pulled a surprise upset and won the 6A girls title last year. Metler has been on the outside looking in against some of the top competition in the Wichita area, but a regional championship has to give him some confidence. He does have marquee finishes this year with his biggest being a second place finish at the Oklahoma State Cowboy Jamboree in early October.

Top Three Teams
1. Lawrence
The Lawrence boys will have no trouble claiming their second consecutive state title. Their one big push from a 6A team came at the Emporia meet where the two teams tied. Lawrence was without its complete varsity that day though. Lawrence won the Sunflower League, Regional and will also get state.

2. Topeka Washburn Rural
The race for second through fourth is going to be very good. I love the state experience Washburn Rural brings to the table with a 1-2-3 punch of Pope, Jacob Morgan and Alex Mahaffey. Pope and Morgan were both top 20 at 6A state last year.

3. Shawnee Mission Northwest
This spot could just as easily have gone to Shawnee Mission South, but I will give the edge to the reputation. Shawnee Mission Northwest is not what I once was, but the program is still strong with experienced runners. This team was third at its league meet and second to Lawrence at the regional meet.

What do you guys think? Did I miss anybody? Let me know by leaving a comment or e-mailing me at cparker@kwch.com. Keep checking back for the other classes.