AVCTL IV Football Predictions

The Ark-Valley Chisholm Trail League Division IV has a new look this season with two new teams, but I think you will not see much new at the top. Here are my picks for how the league will shake out.

1. Andale
Andale is 36-3 over the last three seasons. Three of those losses have come against Topeka Hayden. Gary O’Hair never has to rebuild because the infrastructure is there at Andale. The junior varisty team was 8-1 last year and O’Hair has the advantage of superior numbers.

The Indians lost many stars off of last season’s team including offensive lineman BJ Finney, but Jake Hattabaugh is back and he is a great player to have back. Andale also has many running backs to rely on.

There is also the fact that Andale has been plain dominant in AVCTL Division IV. Take these facts into mind:

- Andale has outscored division opponents 648-122 in the last three years winning all 18 league games
- That is outscoring league opponents in the league 36-6.8 over the last 18 games
- Only six of the last 18 league opponents have managed double digits against Andale
- Kingman is happy to be gone as Andale has outscored it 223-27 over the last three seasons

Add up all those numbers and it leads to another year of dominance by the Indians. They are the king of Division IV until they get knocked off.

2. Wellington
There are three definite tiers to this league and Wellington comes in as a clear No. 2. Linn Hibbs’ Crusaders have been very good, but not great over the last three years. Wellington is 2-3 in the playoffs, but has made the playoffs 18 years running. That streak does not look to change, but Andale’s consistent dominance of Wellington also does not look to change too much.

Andale has knocked the Crusaders out of the playoffs each of the last two years. In those games over the last three years Wellington has been outscored by an average of 29.4-11.4 over five games.

That being said, I think Wellington makes the playoffs and has very little trouble winning the other four league games.

3. Circle
This one was tough. It was very tough, but Circle has continually improved over the last three years from 1-8 in 2007 to 2-7 in 2008 to 4-5 last year. The big thing I like about Circle is Jordan Phillips and Alex Gardnier.

Phillips is a known commodity. The Oklahoma commit is Mr. Everything for the T-Birds as he played all three ways last season. He can catch passes, he can block, he can kick and the boy can tackle and create havoc on the defensive side of the ball. He will not run up against anyone in this league that can solo block him.

Gardiner is an athlete. There is nothing he cannot do for this team as a dual threat quarterback. He can sling it as proof by his 193-foot javelin throwing ability. His top receiving target is also back this season in Richard Mould.

They return the key starters and have 13 back overall. These are 13 seniors that have had the luxury of being in the same system for their entire high school careers.

4. Wichita Collegiate
Let’s just start by saying that this is not the MCAA. AVCTL IV has athletes and players that Collegiate football has not experienced for a while. That coupled with losing virtually every important skill player, this could be a rough season for the Spartans. At least one they have not experienced in a while.

Raymond Taylor is a nice back as head coach Bill Messamore called him “one of the best backs we have ever had here.” He is likely not the level of DeAngelo Evans, but it is still some high praise. The problem comes when you consider the Spartans are starting a sophomore quarterback and have a new receiving corp.

I saw this group play 7-on-7 in Derby and, even though not all the starters were there, it just didn’t look like last year, and it rightfully should not look the same. It is not easy to replace the best statistical quarterback in state history.

5. Clearwater
Clearwater has been improving in the last several years, but the Fighting Indians still are not on a level with the four teams above. They have made the playoffs each of the last three years, but in fairly weak districts. This year is different with Wellington, Mulvane and Winfield to contend with.

Six offensive starters return, but Clearwater is replacing all its skill positions. Its big receiver will be tight end Colin Frickey and he is only a sophomore.

6. Maize South
Maize South has 20 of 22 starters back from last season’s team. That is great to have, but the Mavericks are a young school and are playing in their first season of league and district schedules. There will be growing pains and this season looks to have many of those. Maize South got rocked last season by small schools like La Crosse and Meade, so it stands to reason it may be a couple years before Maize South can expect consistent winning in the rough AVCTL IV.

Predictions in district play:
Andale – (3-0 district champion)
Wellington – (2-1 District runner-up to Mulvane)
Circle – (2-1 District runner-up to Rose Hill)
Collegiate (3-0 District champions)
Clearwater (1-2 with win over Wellington)
Maize South (0-3)

What is your take? How do you think the league will shake out? Leave a comment and give me your AVCTL IV Predictions!