Substate of the Union

I love bubble talk. Love the speculation that surrounds the final few weeks leading up to the NCAA tournament. Love the possibilities of a blank bracket. Love the word “bubble”… Somehow none of that ever manages to spill into the high school ranks. And that’s a shame.

Sometime next week Substate assignments are due out for 2A through 6A schools. I don’t know of anyone – aside from maybe those directly involved –counting down the minutes until their release. But wouldn’t the last week of the regular season be a lot more fun if we were a little more aware of the stakes?

In 5 and 6A seeding means everything. Teams are broken down into four regions of eight teams each, but each Substate will ultimately spit out two state qualifiers. So in 6A’s Wichita East Substate, seven other teams are hoping against hope that Wichita Heights will end up in the opposite four-team pod.

Topeka (10-5 and currently looking at a four seed) would love to sneak up on Wichita East (12-5 and sitting third) if for no other reason than it allows them to trade a potential substate final date with defending state champion Heights for a crack at Derby, instead.

I’m sure most coaches will tell you that it doesn’t really matter. The chips will fall where they may. You have to beat the best to be the best. But you can’t honestly tell me that Washburn Rural (currently in line for the five seed) isn’t in worse position than Manhattan (number six if the season ended today).

In 5A’s Andover Substate, the bottom four teams are all separated by just half a game. Depending on how tiebreakers shake out Wichita West (7-10) could fall anywhere from five seed to eight seed. Ark City (7-10), Andover (7-10) and Bishop Carroll (8-10) are all globbed* together with them.

*- Spell check insists that globbed isn’t a word. “Glob” is. But the Microsoft paperclip draws the line at turning a noun into a past tense verb. Apparently “punked” is also not a real word. So there you go.

The stakes in that Andover Substate? You’re either dealing with Andover Central (which has locked up the top seed) or Kapaun/Liberal. Carroll – in line for the five seed – may be better off losing on Friday in order to drop down to a six or a seven.
I know, I know. This is stupid. It’s better to keep winning and take your chances. At this stage of the season everyone who makes it to a substate final is good. Sure. But some roads are tougher than others.

Substate seeding in Class 6A (as it stands now):
This is just a sampling and not the official bracket. I’m not up on my tiebreaker formulas, yet, so take this at face value.

6A –
Wichita East Substate:

#1 Wichita Heights (15-2)
#8 Junction City (6-10)
#4 Topeka (10-5)
#5 Washburn Rural (9-5)

#2 Derby (14-3)
#7 Wichita Southeast (7-11)
#3 Wichita East (12-5)
#6 Manhattan (7-9)

Wichita South Substate:
#1 Dodge City (15-2)
#8 Wichita South (2-15)
#4 Campus (9-7)
#5 Wichita Northwest (10-8)

#2 Maize (13-4)
#7 Goddard (6-11)
#3 Wichita North (10-7)
#6 Garden City (7-10)

I started in on the 5A’s but found them so muddled by teams with similar records that any attempt to sort them out would be far too time consuming and inaccurate to be much good.

But that’s the beauty! In a week where most of the league titles have already been decided and teams are simply playing out the string, we have STAKES.
And that’s enough to make me bubbly.